The decision

Move an early behavior, then measure.

Typesy VIP needed a behavior that appeared before durable learning outcomes.

The candidate was simple: start the first course within four days.

That behavior became a leading indicator. It remained separate from long-term retention.

The experiment kept one contrast.

Treatment received the activation intervention. Control retained the existing experience.

Both groups used the same first-course definition and four-day window.

GroupUsersPAI hitsHit rate
Treatment1218469.4%
Control573357.9%

Treatment showed a 19.9% relative lift and 11.5-point absolute difference.

What the result supports.

The treatment group showed a higher first-course rate in this experiment.

The observation supports further lifecycle testing and retention follow-up.

Claim boundary

This public summary does not establish statistical significance or long-term retention lift.

Method notes and limits.

OutcomeFirst course started within four days.
Published cohort178 users: 121 treatment and 57 control.
Observed counts84 treatment hits and 33 control hits.
SourceTypesy VIP experiment outcome supplied for publication.
Not publicDates, assignment method, intervention detail, and inferential analysis.

The rates and lifts are descriptive until the full analysis is published.

The operating lesson.

A useful PAI is not only predictive. Teams must also be able to move it.

Discovery narrows the behavior. Validation earns the right to operationalize it.

See the Activation Signal Sprint method →